The Bradley Effect

Sen. Hillary Clinton's victory over Sen. Barack Obama in the New Hampshire primary surprised pundits because pollsters had predicted a double-digit win for Obama following his impressive showing in the Iowa caucuses. Those same pundits are now scrambling to explain the result, mentioning everything from Bill Clinton's feverish and decidedly unpresidential attack on Obama to Hillary being choked up, and as such displaying uncharacteristic emotion, in responding to a question about the pressures of campaigning. There has been little, if any, mention of the Bradley Effect, a phenomenon that produces inaccurate voter opinion polls in campaigns between white candidates and African American candidates. In particular, where statistically significant numbers of white voters tell pollsters that they are either undecided or inclined to vote for the African American candidate, once they find themselves in the privacy of the voting booth, vote for the white candidate. In the 1982 California Gubernatorial race, Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley enjoyed a substantial lead in the polls over white Republican George Deukmejian. Bradley lost by 50,000 votes.